The Age of Discovery - 지리상의 발견

Perhaps the time that separated the east and the west so decisively as to making the latter become the dominant force over the former for centuries to come was the Age of Discovery. The 14th and 15th centuries did it all. By that time, the west's scientific and technological advancement was beyond reach by the east. When Ferdinand Magellan's fleet arrived at Moluccas on November 8, 1521, the entire Malay Archipelago was already under the firm control of the Portugal's naval force. The natives and their chieftains (rajahs) yielded to the force's unilateral demands. They were punished if they did not submit to the orders and directions of the Portuguese naval commanders. What the Portuguese had in possession were a few dozens of warships in the Indian Ocean and a few thousand soldiers deployed in the military posts surrounding the ocean. But the warships were equipped with cannons and artillery that could reap apart villages and settlements at whim. The roar and the sheer magnitude of the destructive power terrified the natives. The warships powered by cannons and artillery effectively subjugated the natives. They did it in Africa, India, Malacca, Moluccas, Philippines, and Japan. Later in the 16th through 19th centuries, they did the same in China.

The ship-building skills and knowledge were also developed beyond reach. The navigation skills and knowledge were also far advanced. With such superior knowledge and skills, the west went out the oceans to conquer, control, and colonize the east. The knowledge was really the power in that era. How did the west do it? It did not happen over night. It took centuries. The Renaissance Movement begot such brilliant scientists as Copernicus, Galileo and many others, and they passed their scientific discoveries for practical uses. The free spirit that encouraged expression of humanity and endeavors to pursue the curiosities in art, science, and literature led the Europe to be a flowerbed of blossoming all sorts of secular fields of studies. In that sense, the Age of Discovery indebted to the Renaissance Movement.

But that is one part of explanation for the advancement of scientific knowledge and skills. Another important part of it was that the discovered scientific knowledge and skills were preserved, arranged, and accumulated methodically overtime. Then they were passed down to next generations. To make that possible, schools and libraries were established and young minds were taught in formal educational settings. Apprentice systems and guild systems were established and skills were passed down from generation to generation. Kings and nobles were aware of the importance of such methodical efforts to develop, preserve and pass down the knowledge and skills, and they vigorously supported such efforts. Those efforts paid off. Portugal went out to the ocean first. Spain followed suit, then England. By the time England put their ships out to sea, the game was over. It dominated the whole world.

So what do we learn from the history?
Progress is achieved through concerted efforts and systematic arrangement of development, preservation, and passing to others. Haphazard trials, disinvestment, and disconcerted efforts would not materialize progress.

The Voyage of Magellan - Epilogue

When arriving at San Lucar, Cano wrote to the king of Spain, giving him a summary of the voyage. When Charles V received Cano's letter, he responded immediately, congratulating the captain and the crew of the Victoria on their remarkable achievement. Cano provided a harsh indictment of his former chief, Ferdinand Magellan, for his dictatorial treatment of officers, his foolhardiness, his recalcitrance and harshness. On the contrary, Pigafetta, a nobleman, who recorded daily events throughout the voyage in full details, and who accompanied Magellan to the battle of Mactan, paid eloquent tribute to him. He presented his journal to the king, and the copies of his journal have become the most valuable source for understanding the voyage of Magellan.

The human cost of Magellan's expedition was horrendous. The small profit realized from the sale of the Victoria's cargo could never be construed as a reasonable return on investment. The route to the west that he discovered would never again be used for any purpose. Yet, for all these failures, Magellan's voyage represents a triumph of the human spirit. For this and for its contribution to man's knowledge of the true size of this world and the extent of its oceans, his achievement stands unparalleled in history. Truly, his achievement stands unparalleled in human history.

The Voyage of Magellan - The Indian Ocean

The final voyage of the Victoria, the only remaining ship, was fighting against time and wind. As it was sailing southwest, navigating through the islands littered in the southern Malay Archipelago, it laid anchors at several islands to replenish its stores. After it made a major replenishment at Timor, it sailed into the Indian Ocean. Before the ship set out to the ocean, two men deserted the ship at night for fear of death while making another transoceanic voyage. As the entire Indian Ocean fell under the Portugal's control, the captain of the ship, Cano, wanted to keep a far distance from the coastal land surrounding the ocean, that is, the island of Malacca, India, and the Arabian peninsula. He wanted to turn around the Cape of Good Hope from a distance and go up north to return to Spain. But that soon turned out a dangerous plan. As the ship passed latitude 40 degree S in the middle of April, the weather became cold and increasingly intolerable. The ship was leaking badly and the crew had to put in long and exhausting hours at the pumps. Since they had run out of salt for preserving food, the meat they had taken aboard at Timor had spoiled. Only little rice and water were left for daily rations. Fearing a mutiny, Cano relented and headed toward Africa. Fighting bad weathers and headwinds, they finally sighted the African mainland on May 8. About two weeks later, they rounded the Cape.

The Cape of Good Hope

The long, nonstop transit of the Indian Ocean without enough fresh food resulted malnutrition, and it led to another outbreak of scurvy. As the ship rounding the Cape, four crew members died of the disease. Nine more died during the month of June. The Victoria crossed the equator on June 8. Scurvy continued to take its deadly toll. Desperate for fresh provisions, Captain Cano headed toward the coast of Guinea. On June 21, he hove-to in front of Cape Roxo, near the border of today's Senegal and Guinea-Bissau, and sent a boat crew ashore to search for food. While waiting for the crew to return, three more died in the ship. The boat crew returned empty-handed. The Victoria set sail again, beating northward toward Cape Verde. It was a dangerous gambling as the islands were under a firm guard by Portuguese force. But the captain sent a boat ashore with an instruction to the crew to tell the Portuguese, when asked, that they were sailing from "the Indies," and on its way to Spain, and they were just stopping to buy some fresh food for some sick crew members in the ship. The Portuguese port guards believed the story and let them buy food. Emboldened by the success of the deception, Cano sent a longboat with thirteen men. This time, it failed, and the longboat crewmen were arrested. A supernumerary of Portuguese birth is believed to have tipped off the truth. When the longboat did not return for two days, and it became apparent that the crews were captured, the captain ordered to set the sails and headed out to sea. The ship sailed south and then west to get around the Cape Verde islands, then headed north toward the Azores. The thirteen longboat crewmen were later released after King Charles of Spain appealed to the king of Portuguese when he was informed of the arrest from the survivors of the voyage.

The remaining crew of twenty two had to labor incessantly at the pump to keep the ship afloat. On August 6, another and the last seaman died and was cast into the sea. The wind was not cooperating all through the summer month. On September 4, the lookout spotted a cape at the southwest corner of the Iberian peninsula. Two days later, on September 6, 1522, with twenty-one exhausted survivors on board, the Victoria  entered the harbor of San Lucar. In fourteen days less than three years, the ship completed the first circumnavigation of the earth.

The Voyage of Magellan - The Pacific 3

The Trinidad and the Victoria sailed into the harbor of Tidore, a small island off the coast of the Moluccas' bigger island, Gilolo (Halmahera). By then, of the 265 men who had started the journey from San Lucar, Spain, only 107 men survived. The next day, they were greeted by the rajah of the island and his entourage. After friendly exchange of gifts and well wishes, they made a treaty and set up a trading post in the island. The next visitor to the ships was the elderly rajah of Gilolo, a friend and ally of the rajah of Tidore. Within a month, a similar treaty was signed. After that, many bales of cloves were loaded up in the ships. After navigating a half way around the world and with the sacrifice of more than a half of the original sailors, the Spaniards finally got what they had wanted.

But while staying in the island, the Spaniards learned that the Portuguese had been eagerly searching for them. When King Manuel of Portugal learned of the departure of Magellan's fleet from Spain, he dispatched two warships to intercept him; one to the Cape Good Hope, and the other to the Cape Santa Maria at the mouth of the La Plata estuary at the border of today's Uruguay and Argentina. When failing to discover the fleet, the king ordered the commander of Portuguese naval force in the Indian Ocean to take on the mission. The commander put an alert to all Portuguese naval forces and traders for intelligence.

When their holds were crammed with cloves, and the ships were filled with enough supplies, the Spaniards wanted to sail back home. On December 21, 1521, the Victoria departed the harbor of Tidore with forty-seven Europeans and thirteen Moluccans on board. Unfortunately, the Trinidad had to stay behind as it needed extensive repair. With much tear and sadness, they bid farewell to each other, not knowing when they could meet again. The Victoria sailed straight down to the south to Timor, then veered southwest to the Indian Ocean. The repair work of the Trinidad took nearly four months, and nearly five months after arriving at Tidore, the Trinidad was finally ready to sail. With fifty-four men and about fifty tons of cloves on board, it set out to a new journey on April 20. But the captain and the pilots decided to sail north rather than following the direction the Victoria had taken, because they found that the northwest monsoon set in, blocking access to the Indian Ocean and the route to the Cape of Good Hope. When they decided to take the northern course, they thought the Asia was connected to the American landmass, and up north, they would encounter westerly winds like those in the North Atlantic, which would carry them to the eastern shore of America. Not only was their cartographic knowledge wrong, but they knew nothing about the northeast monsoon.

A few days after they departed Tidore, they met the monsoon. Struggling with the wind, they continued their northerly course, but were pushed far off the coast of Japan. Off the coast of Hokkaido, the Trinidad was struck by a severe storm, perhaps a typoon that blew for five days. The wind was so fierce, it carried away both the fore and after castles, broke the mainmast into two places, and ripped the sails to tatters. The captain and the pilots finally saw the futility of continuing the sail to northeast, and turned the ship down toward the south to return to Gilolo. In October, after nearly six months, they returned to the island. Among the fifty-four crew members, thirty three perished. But the tragedy did not end there. A few days after their arrival, A Portuguese fleet arrived at the island. Apparently, they got the wind of the two Spanish ships trading with the natives in the Spice Islands. The Portuguese arrested the feable and sick Spaniards, confiscating the commodities in the ship and the trading post. Then they put the Spaniards to labor of constructing fortifications. The Trinidad eventually grounded by a storm and broke up. Of the twenty-one survivors in the Trinidad, only four would ever return to Spain.

The Voyage of Magellan - The Pacific 2

Sailing southwest for a week, they arrived at an island in the central Philippines. The islanders provided with coconuts, sweet oranges, chickens and palm wine in exchange for caps, mirrors, combs, and other trinkets. With many sick crewmen having recovered their strength, the squadron got underway. On March 28, they arrived at a small island, Limasawa. The chieftain or rajah of the island greeted them and brought a larger quantity of fruit, rice, and palm wine. As a goodwill gesture, Magellan invited him and his retinue to the ship and took them on a tour of the flagship. He then ordered his gunners to fire some of the ship's artillery. It had the desired effect, for the roar of the cannon both awed and terrified the guests. The Spaniards suddenly became the honored guests of the islanders. March 31, 1521 was the Easter Sunday, and Magellan felt the desire to augment the shock and awe to the islanders with a pompous religious ceremony. In full armor and with an orderly march, the Spaniards landed on the island and walked on the beach to conduct a solemn Easter mass. They were pleased and surprised with the odd ceremony and immediately aspired to take part in the culture of the community. After the ceremony, Magellan asked about spices. The islanders indicated that such commodities could be obtained at Leyte, Cebu, and Mindanao. Magellan decided to go to Cebu. On April 7, the squadron arrived at the bustling port of Cebu. To make a grand impression, Magellan ordered the gunners to fire a salute using all their artillery. The thundering roars of the cannons terrified the inhabitants and made them flee into the hills. Then the three ships slowly entered the harbor.

Magellan and his crew were well received by the local potentate Humabon and his coterie. Magellan established a trading post in the island, and made a commercial treaty with the potentate. With an apparent intent to convert the potentate, his family and relatives, Magellan displayed his prayer in public with his knees dropped and hands on his heart. With little more efforts, he could win his heart. He and forty-some others were baptized in one day. Then, the converters grew in large numbers, and for the next eight days, some 2,200 people on Cebu and from neighboring islands followed Humabon's example. Elated by this great achievement, Magellan decided to make Humabon the undisputed ruler of Cebu and its neighboring islands. Messengers went out with an order to pay homage to Humabon. All but one chieftain paid the tribute. The chieftain of the island of Mactan was defiant. Unwilling to tolerate the defiance, Magellan determined to stage an attack to the island. Humabon opposed the idea. Juan Serrano, Magellan's senior and most experienced captain told him that such a campaign would be foolhardy. But Magellan was not a type of person to be easily dissuaded. With sixty chosen men, he set forth to the village in three shallops at midnight on April 26-27. But the island of Mactan was well fortified with trenches with sharp bamboo stakes, and the village's able bodied warriors were at constant vigil. Upon arriving at the beach, a battle quickly broke out. Without much use of their crossbows the Magellan's troops were met by a shower of spears and poisoned arrows. Magellan refused to pull back. He charged forward alone. He was quickly surrounded by the warriors, and slaughtered. Seven Europeans including Magellan were killed in the battle. Humabon cried like a baby when he was told of Magellan's death, but his confidence in his new allies was shaken. Eventually, he expelled the Spaniards from Cebu.

At the beginning of May, the three ships departed Cebu. The remaining sailors reorganized the command lines. With so many crews perished, the survivors realized that there were not enough men left to operate three ships. They decided to scuttle the Concepcion as it was in the worst condition. The two remaining ships - the Trinidad and the Victoria - set sail again taking a southwesterly course. They reached the northern coast of Borneo. From there, they turned to the east and skirted the southern coast line of Mindano, then turning south, they finally arrived at Moluccas, the principal destination of Magellan's voyage, on November 8, 1521, nearly two years and three months after they departed San Lucar.

The Voyage of Magellan - The Pacific 1

As they exited the strait, they headed north along the coast of Chile, keeping a safe distance offshore. On December 19, on reaching 33 degree S, they altered course to northwest, turning away from the coastal land. On their northwesterly sail, they encountered a couple of islands, but they did not make an effort to land on the islands to replenish provisions and water, for Magellan was certain Moluccas was not far away. The food remaining in the ships' stores spoiled and the water turned putrid. Nineteen sailors died of scurvy while crossing the Pacific. The Patagonian they captured earlier also died of scurvy. The other Patagonian, who was kept separately in the San Antonio, the deserted ship, also perished in the tropics. With fair skies and steady wind astern, the ships crossed the equator on February 13, 1521, at about 160 degree W longitude. On March 6, nearly a hundred days after they had passed the strait, the sailors saw an island rising above the horizon. It was Guam.

As Magellan's ships sailed closer to investigate, a swarm of incredibly swift, small, outrigger canoes came out to meet them. The curious Guamanians, also known as Chamorros, clambered aboard, not at all intimidated by the gaunt, starving Europeans. Innocent of any notion of private property, they eagerly appropriated all the fascinating objects in the ships. When they gaily made off with a longboat from the stern of the Trinidad, Magellan was infuriated. He resolved to teach the thieving scoundrels a lesson, sending a well-armed force to the beach. The Guamanians hurled stones and spears at the Spaniards, but frightened by the sound of the Spaniards' arquebuses, they scattered. The Spaniards then burned up the houses and killed several villagers with their crossbows, which were so powerful that the crossbow bolts passed completely through one side of body to the other. With agonizing pain, the Guamanians died of the wounds. The landing spot of the Magellan's ships was known as Umatac, and in that small village the first skirmish between the Chamorros and the Spainards was believed to have taken place. For the next four hundred years, the island was controlled by Spain, then the United States after the Spanish-American War. For a brief period of time, Japan took control of the island during the World War II, where the legendary Japanese soldier, Schoichi Yokoi, survived the war and hid himself in a underground tunnel of a bamboo grove in the thickets of the jungle in Talofofo for twenty eight years. Today, a good portion of the northern part of the island is used as a U.S. airbase. Punishing the Guamanians and retrieving the stolen longboat, the landing force loaded their boats with coconuts and fruit, and filled their water casks from a stream. On March 9, the three ships weighed anchor and departed Guam. With the wind on their starboard quarter, the squadron drove westward at a brisk speed. The lush, green mountains of Guam soon sank below the horizon.

A beautiful view of modern-day Guam. The cliff in the middle is Two Lovers Point.

At the Seashore

바닷가에서

                                                    이해인

오늘은
맨발로
바닷가를 거닐었습니다

철석이는 파도 소리가
한번은 하느님의 통곡으로
한번은 당신의 울음으로 들렸습니다

삶이 피곤하고
기댈 데가 없는 섬이라고
우리가 한번씩 푸념할 적마다
쓸쓸함의 해초도
더 깊이 자라는 걸 보았습니다

밀물이 들어오며 하는 말
감당 못 할 열정으로
삶을 끌어안아 보십시오
썰물이 나가면서 하는 말
놓아버릴 욕심들은
미루지 말고 버리십시오

바다가 모래위에 엎질러놓은
많은 말을 다 전할 순 없어도
마음에 출렁이는 푸른 그리움을
당신께 선물로 드릴게요

언젠가는 우리모두
슬픔이 없는 바닷가에서
하얗게 부서지는 파도로
춤추는 물새로 만나는 꿈을 꾸며
큰 바다를 번쩍 들고 왔습니다

Divine Comedy - Dante

In the midway of this our mortal life, I found me in a gloomy wood, astray
Gone from the path direct.
우리의 이 속절없는 인생의 중년에 나는 길을 잃고 침침한 숲속을 헤메였네
곧은 길을 벗어나

Dark is the way and thick is the wood.
길은 어둡고 숲은 캄캄하구나.

Where am I now? Where am I going?
난 지금 어디에 있나? 어디로 가고있나?

The Voyage of Magellan - The Atlantic 4

The loss of seamen did not end with the executions. Several more froze to death while wintering in Patagonia. The victim of Anton Salamon threw himself into the sea overwhelmed by shame and the ridicule of his shipmates. Many more seamen were frostbitten. The misery in the Atlantic culminated when the Santiago was pounded to pieces in the surf while searching for a strait near the southern end of the South American continent. Early in June, about a month after the shipwreck of the Santiago, on the shore of San Julian, they encountered with Patagonians. They were huge, clad in a cape made of stitched animal skins. Some were allowed aboard the ships, fed with square meals, and given some gifts of combs, knives, mirrors, and rosary beads. One of them was even taught to say the words, Jesu, Pater Noster, and Ave Maria and to recite simple prayers. When he did them with gusto, he was baptized with a Christian name, Juan. When he left the ship, he was showered with more gifts of a cap, jacket, trousers, and other trinkets. The encounter with Patagonians was not all peaceful. There were skirmishes and bow-and-arrow fights on the shore when the crew attempted to capture a few. They could capture two of them, who after days of resist adapted to shipboard life. With little hope to find a passage to the west, Magellan decided to winter at Santa Cruz, where there was an abundance of fish, seals, shellfish and seabirds, which would be smoked and stored to augment the dwindling food stores.

On October 18, satisfied with the replenished food supply, Magellan ordered to weigh anchor to resume the search for a passage. The four ships resumed the southwesterly sail. Three days later, the lookouts spotted a large opening in the coast. The fleet sailed into the opening, hoping to find a way out to the opposite exit. But that took more than a month, as the seamen continued to fight storms, mountainous waves, gales, and bitter cold while searching for the exit. Inside the strait was an island named Dawson Island. Confronted by the splitting of the channel, Magellan dispatched the San Antonio to explore the waterway leading east and south. The intimidating landscape with glacier-covered mountains dominated the horizon. Gomes, an experienced pilot, seized the opportunity to escape to Spain. He convinced most of the officers in the ship, tried to convince Mesquita the captain of the ship. When he refused, a brawl erupted between the two, but Mesquita was stabbed and overpowered. Gomes the piloted the ship back through the strait and headed back to Guinea Coast and then Spain. The ship arrived in Spain on May 6, 1521 with 55 seamen aboard.

When it was all clear that the San Antonio and its crew deserted the journey, Magellan was dismayed, but still determined to finish what he had begun. Magellan again headed up the strait with the three remaining ships. Nearing the opposite end of the strait, Magellan's sailors heard the sound of booming surf. Their ears did not deceive them. They began to feel, faintly at first, but with increasing strength, the long Pacific swells rolling into the mouth of the strait. On November 28, 1520, they finally sailed into the great ocean. The ocean was spreading before them in such glorious weather, Magellan was inspired to name it "Mar Pacifico."

The Voyage of Magellan - The Atlantic 3

When Magellan sought for King Charles' support for his mission, he had one proposal to present: Finding a passage to Molucca through a westward voyage from Europe. Up until that time, a journey to the East was made by sailing along the coast of Africa straight down to the Cape of Good Hope, the southern tip of the African continent; sailing up and passing Madagascar to the right, all the way up to the eastern tip of Africa or to the southern coastal line of the Arabian peninsula; then crossing the Indian Ocean to reach the west coast of India, where there were early port stations in such places as Goa and Calicut; passing the southern tip of the Indian continent and passing Ceylon to the right, finally arriving at Molucca. Voyage following this route was undoubtedly long and costly. Magellan thought that there was a passage to the Orient by taking a westerly journey. But this was based on a wrong idea about the Pacific Ocean. He thought, just like any other Europeans at that time, it was a small sea, perhaps little bigger than the Mediterranean.

Once the ships left Rio de Janairo, they made a southerly journey, looking for a passage toward the west, constantly entering and exiting wide river estuaries or bays. The season advanced rapidly from summer to fall. Pamperos, the violent winds crossing across the Pampas from the southwest, brought cold blasts, giving the crew the first taste of a subantarctic winter. Gail storms frequented the fleet with violent gusts that snapped the anchor cables and ripped the sails apart. Sometimes such violent tempests lasted for a full day. Terrified crews made pledges for pilgrimages to famous temples or churches and prayed fervently for deliverance from the fury of the storms. By March 31, 1520, the ships were well below the latitude of the Cape of Good Hope, but Magellan still pressed southward.

During the journey along the coast of Patagonia, located in the southern part of Argentina, a mutiny erupted. Captain Quesada on the Concepcion, Captain Mendoza of the Victoria, and some other officers from both ships secretly met to plan a revolt against Magellan. They took the San Antonio by surprise at night, taking three ships under their control. The three ships the mutineers seized had superior fire power by two to one than Magellan's Trinidad and the Santiago. But they were up against a veteran of naval campaigns in Africa, India and Malaya. Magellan's reaction was swift, decisive, and ruthless. Within two days, he subdued the mutiny with shrewd tactics and bold attacks. April 7, the mutineers were brought to a court martial, and 40 of them were sentenced to death. But for fear of losing able seamen, except for the two leading mutineers - Mendoza and Quesada - the death sentences of the rest were commuted. The two got their heads chopped off. The loss of the seamen were not just two by then. Two others had fallen to the water and drowned during the struggles with the tempests. Earlier at Rio de Janeiro, Antonio Salamon, a 45-year-old master of the Victoria, was condemned to death for the sodomy he had committed with a young apprentice seaman in the ship during the sailing across the Atlantic. He was executed on the same day in a full view of the natives, which for them may have been the first exposure to the dark side of the Europeans.

Economy & Investment III

Is our economy picking up?
It looks like it, doesn't it? The unemployment rate has fallen to 8.3%, a sea change from 9.0% a few month ago! It fell to 8.7%, then to 8.5%, and finally to 8.3% last month. Most 10Q reports continue to show upward trends, although the trends seem somewhat tempered from the previous quarter. Stock prices continue to rise. Industrial production is ok. Retail sales are ok. There is no sign of inflation. So are we on track now?

Many believe so. Those who give negative outlooks are minority. One of them is Ben Bernake, the Chairman of FOMC. In a recent Senate hearing, to the question from a senator whether he will hold the low interest rates through the end of 2014 as he had announced last month, he answered yes for the reason that the economy is still weak and the recovery is not robust.

For me, holding the low interest rates through the end of 2014 (not even 2013!) seems too long and too risky. But I am just a mediocre economist, and my concern is based on a pure guess, not hard-crunched data. What does he see what many other mediocre economists do not see? Since those top-notch economists also express pessimism on our economic recovery, I should ask, "What do those top-class economists see what other mediocre economists do not see?"

I believe human history (particularly the progress of it) is led by a few geniuses and not by mass. And here, we are facing another test of the proposition. If you are a believer of the proposition, you should believe Ben Bernanke, and hold stock investments. If you want to follow the mediocre mass, do the investments.

Economy & Investment II

Remember what Warren Buffet, the second richest man in the world, once said? He said he started investing in stocks at the age of nine, and he thinks that was too late. That may be a little exaggeration, but I believe it emphatically tells us the power of investment in stocks. The rich do not get rich by their salaries. They get rich from investments. So anyone who wants to be rich should know how to invest, especially in stocks. Why stocks? Very recently, Warren Buffet reiterated his preference for equities as investment instrument over gold, bonds, real estates or any others. I agree with him. Historically, the return on stocks on average is far outpaced the return on precious metals, bonds, or real estates. This trend will continue as long as the capitalist economies exist in the world. Companies make things people need, and thus create values. Those values are translated into stock prices.

On the other hand, gold does not create value. It is not something that people need for survival. Although gold price has skyrocketed during the last couple of years, it will not continue its upward trend. Although the demands for gold are real and expected to increase, they are not going to be robust in the end. People are not fools. They know what has real value and what does not. Investing in gold or precious metals does not contribute to economic growth, as Warren Buffet said, because they do not generate the output that people need. Bonds are for safe havens. Even Warren Buffet said he holds some. But he added that that is because for immediate liquidity purposes. In other words, when he needs cash, he can safely (without loss) sell the bonds. That makes sense. Real estates are not an investment instrument. Buying a first home is very encouraged for multiple purposes, but one should not be tempted to add more. That would be a drain of investment fund. As almost all stock investment advisers would say, one should look at a long term when making investments in stocks. One can delegate the investment role to a broker or choose to invest into an individual retirement account (IRA). Whether one makes little money or a lot, one has to set aside a portion of the income for investment on a regular basis. The money will grow.

The Voyage of Magellan - The Atlantic 2

On December 13, 1519, nearly three months after they departed San Lucar, the Moluccan Fleet entered the habor of Rio de Janeiro, well below the protrude part of the South American continent. Had it not been for Magellan's prudent deep southerly course-taking from Canary Islands, passing Cape Verde straight south along the coast of Africa, the fleet's landfall might have been at the northern part of the protrusion. Then they would have been stuck in there for months as fighting the westerly current and headwinds would have been difficult. As they approached Rio, a spectacular view of the harbor appeared from the morning mist. A smell of tropical flowers and fruits permeated the balmy air of the harbor. Entering the beautiful harbor, they dropped anchor in Botafogo Inlet. A swarm of naked natives in canoes paddled eagerly out to greet them.

Modern day Rio de Janairo

They swarmed on deck, offering parrots, chickens, fish ad garden produce in exchange for fishhooks, knives, combs, small mirrors, or scissors. For a pair of scissors, they offered enough fish to feed ten people. For a knife or a fishhook, five or six chickens. But the crew was most electrified with naked and exceedingly friendly women. Young women swarmed aboard to offer themselves to the sailors hoping to receive presents. The crew quickly succumbed to lust, and the revels with the women degenerated into an unabated orgy. At first Magellan overlooked the lusty liaisons between his crew and the native girls, but when things got out of control, he felt disciplinary actions were in order. Magellan ordered his crew to clear their love nests ashore and the ships of native girls, and restored discipline to the fleet. The ships departed the harbor on December 26. Carrying a fair wind from the north, the fleet headed west-southwest under full sail.

The Voyage of Magellan - The Atlantic 1

Shaping a southwesterly course, the ships called at Santa Cruz, on the island of Tenerife in the Canaries on September 26, 1519, an obligatory stop for Spanish ships sailing to the New World. After taking on water and wood and enlisting two able seamen and a supernumerary, the fleet weighed anchor and put to sea at midnight on October 3. Next day, Magellan made an abrupt change of course due south, heading directly toward Cape Verde Islands. Enjoying fair winds, the fleet held the southerly course for fifteen days, passing between the coast of Africa and the Cape Verde Islands.

Canary Islands

Cape Verde Islands

At the latitude of 10 degree, they ran into a series of tropical storms. At the height of these storms, ball-like electrostatic discharges appeared at the mastheads. The sailors interpreted them as the manifestation of St. Elmo, the patron saint of mariners, and calmed their fears. Entering the equatorial belt, the storms subsided and windless stillness put the ships motionless. The sails hung limp in the still. For twenty days, they logged only nine nautical miles. Torrential rains soaked the ships and when stopped, a steaming and suffocating miasma arose from belowdecks. They crossed the equator on November 20, somewhere between 15 degree to 20 degree west longitude. The South Equatorial Current carried the fleet westward. After crossing the equator, Magellan chose a south-southwest heading. By November 29, they were off the coast of Brazil.

The Voyage of Magellan - Departure 2

At the time of the epic voyage, Magellan was 39, not too young to lead a fleet of ships and a crew of hundreds. Christopher Columbus, 27 years ago, led a fleet of his own and landed at the new land in 1492, at the age of 41. Magellan was Portuguese and for the fact that he was sailing for Spain, many accounts exist because Portugal and Spain locked horns over the control of the new world at that time. The rivalry was so intense that in 1494, an agreement was signed at Tordesillas, Spain, (called Treaty of Tordesillas), by which Spain and Portugal divided the non-Christian world into two zones of influence. In principle the treaty followed the papal bull issued in 1493 by Pope Alexander VI, which fixed the demarcation line along a circle passing 100 leagues W of the Cape Verde Islands and through the two poles. This division gave the entire New World to Spain and Africa and India to Portugal. However, the Treaty of Tordesillas shifted the demarcation line to a circle passing 370 leagues W of the Cape Verde Islands and thus gave Portugal a claim to Brazil. Because of he sailed for Spain, many Portuguese disdained at his accomplishment, calling him traitor or renegade. But as Columbus was an Italian to lead the Spanish fleet, it was all possible for Magellan doing the same for his mission. But to convince King Charles of Spain was not an easy task when the coterie of blue-blood aristocrats surrounding the king did not hide a sneer on their haughty look whenever the short, swarthy Portuguese approached the royal court.

King Charles, who had just turned eighteen at the time of his first audience with Magellan, relied principally on the advice of royal counselors. With much discussion and dispute, the capitulacion (articles of agreement) was signed in March 1518. For Christopher Columbus, it took seven years to win grudging support of his enterprise. But for Magellan, it took less than a month to win the enthusiastic support from King Charles. For Charles, finding a trade route to Moluccas and shipping in valuable spices was just one motive. Beyond India, he had an ambitious dream of making new discoveries and sowing the seeds of worldwide empire reaching the Orient.

The Voyage of Magellan - Departure 1

Predawn of September 21, 1519, it was rather damp and cool at San Lucar. Five ships hoisted sail for departure. In the lead was the flagship Trinidad. It was flying the royal standard of Spain. Accompanying Trinidad were San Antonio, Conception, Victoria, and Santiago, with total 265 crew on board. The five-ship fleet was dubbed the Moluccan Fleet, as the fleet was to set sail to Moluccas. Southwesterly wind crossed over the Iberian peninsula and spread gentle toward the Atlantic. At dusk, with a few thunderous discharges of cannon, the ships slowly glided out of the harbor.

On the deck of Trinidad was a man with black beard, a lonely figure wrapped in a rough, woolen seaman's cloak against the clammy chill of September. The rhythmic creak and churn of water intensified his loneliness, immersing him ever deeply in troubled thoughts. He was looking at the disappearing harbor prancing slowing on the starboard. Each time he walked, he limped noticeably. It was because of the wound he received in Morocco during a Portuguese campaign against Morocco in his younger days. He was leaving behind his pregnant wife and an infant son, whom he would never see again.

The Voyage of Magellan - Prologue

September 6, 1522, San Lucar de Barrameda, Spain. A weather-beaten and barnacle-encrusted sailing ship was tittering toward the harbor, tilted to one side from a cargo of crammed spices that it brought from Moluccas, modern day Indonesia. Victoria was the ship, the last of a fleet of five that had put to sea nearly three years before. On it were an emaciated crew of eighteen Europeans and four Malays. On arriving at the harbor, the ship was tied up at the wharf. An armed guard was soon assigned by the port authority to protect the precious cargo and to keep curious visitors from boarding the ship. Those of the crew who were able to walk finally came out of the ship to fulfill the vows they had made during the ordeal of their homeward journey. Barefoot, carrying candles in their hands, the gaunt survivors of the circumnavigated journey filed in slow procession, wading through horrified yet curious crowds, first to the shrine of Nuestra Senora de la Victoria, then to the church of Santa Maria la Antigua, chanting "Gloria a Santa Maria." At the entrance of the church, they finally collapsed. But for the last journey to the altar of the sanctuary, they walked on their knees, crying out in tears, "Pietez moi Santa Maria..."

The Voyage of Magellan - Forword

It all started from the time I found a monument at a small village in the Island of Guam. The village is called Umatec, a small cove facing the Philippine Ocean, and the monument was erected in commemoration of  Ferdinand Magellan who arrived there crossing the Pacific Ocean. Below is the picture of the monument:

If you look closely at the picture, you will see a small plaque (seen black) in the lower part of the monument. Below is the plaque blown up for you to read the inscription:

It says "Ferdinand Magellan landed near this place March 6, 1521."

The monument is standing at the seashore of Umatec, under a big tree the name of which I do not know. Looking at the monument and the ocean, I was standing there enthralled for a while. I was thinking, "What on earth could he come this far? Aboard a wooden ship? How far did he sail from there (Spain) to arrive at this small island? What made him sail this far?"

The query was endless. Looking out the heaping water, I felt my whole body numbing with an odd emotion. When I went back home from the vacation, I immediately got down to the business. I picked up a book written on his voyage - the first circumnavigation of the globe in human history, and read it in one sitting. I did more research on the historical background at the time he made the voyage. I tried to learn more about the scientific and geographical discoveries made available for his journey. I read the accounts on such historic explorations as Christopher Columbus, Vasco da Gama, and others, which I found unequal to that of Magellan and his crew. But the studies at the end gave me a great understanding and insight on his epic voyage. The following is how he made the journey.

(To be continued in the next post)

Economy & Investment I

With the ECB's recent lending to European banks and the continuous low interest policy by Fed, the world seems glut with liquidity, and the money is seeking for good parking spaces. Many investors believe the spaces will be the emerging markets. KOSPI, the Korean stock index, has recently pushed up through 2000, and Korean stock market analysts say that has nothing to do with the prospect of the Korean economy; the rising KOSPI has largely been propelled by foreign purchases of Korean equities, and the majority of the foreign investors are Europeans. They further warn that jumping into the bandwagon is risky as the inflation of the equity market is not based on economic fundamentals. In other words, at any moment when the global financial conditions change, the recent gains in stocks will evaporate.

Gains in stocks are not just an experience of the Korean stock investors. DJIA is now 3-year high, and NASDAQ is 11-year high. Better-than-expected earnings reports and the recent employment data seem to have provided the momentum for the stocks. Considering the flurry of positive news, the Fed's position to maintain the near-zero interest rate policy through the end of 2014 is a big question. To that, Mr. Bernanke, the chairman of FOMC, already answered with a reaffirmation of the policy. He said the economic recovery is not robust enough to change the policy. Another Board member, the President of Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, even spoke of the necessity of opening an option of conducting a QE3. I could sense that the voices for raising interest rates as oppose to conducting a QE3 or maintaining the low interest rate policy are minority. This gives me a different look at the US economic future; it is still a far cry that our economy is recovering at a solid pace. The fundamentals are still weak, and that means the economy may fall back into recession. Although the possibility of that is far slimmer than the opposite, the skeptical assessment of the economy will soon translate into the stock markets.

Coupled with the looming European debt crisis, which is yet to unfold, I should say it will be safe to avoid investments in equities. If you are a savvy investor, you may want to short on high-flying stocks now.

Sandy Cove

Adieu

I send you away now
Between memory and darkness
When the dusk grows thick
At the Sandy Cove shore.

Good bye lonely sail boat
I have loved you
Remember this
When a lone seagull leads you over the sea

From the earth to eternity
I will never see you again
Trace of time
Oh dusk
Remember
That I am waiting for you.

안녕

이제 너를 보내노라
추억과 어둠사이
샌디포구에
노을이 짙어질 때에

안녕 외로운 돛배
내가 널 사랑하였노라
기억해다오
떼잃은 외기러기
바다건너 널 인도할 때에

지상에서 영원히
너를 다시 못 보리
시간의 자취
노을이여
기억해다오
나 그대를 기다림을

이 시와 사진은 본인이 지난 12월말 Maryland Sandy Cove에 묵으며 쓰고 찍었다. 시는 블란서 시인 Guillaume Appolinaire 를 흉내냈다.